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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Current Realities

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.