A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."